Late last Saturday night, Iran fired more than 300 missiles and killer drones at Israel. This attack by Iran has given a new turn to the already ongoing war in the Middle East, the effects of which can be wide-ranging. However, this was possible because its script was prepared on the same day when there was an air attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus. After this, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had talked about punishing Israel.
New War Zone: Iran and Israel were fighting a proxy war against each other for a long time, but now it is no longer a proxy. After the attack, Iranian military chief Major General Bagheri threatened Israel and America and said that if retaliatory action was taken, the consequences would be much worse. On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is saying that Iran will have to face consequences. If this happens, not only the Middle East, it is possible that the entire world may enter a new ‘war zone’.
Israel was alert: The enmity between Iran and Israel will not end like this. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant says, ‘The fight is not over yet. Our principle is that we will harm whoever harms us.’ It is also worth noting that Israel was prepared for this attack. Quoting American intelligence, Bloomberg had already told that Iran can attack inside Israel with ballistic missiles or drones. The result was that Israel foiled 90% of the attacks with its multi-layered air-defense system. But if attacks from both sides increase, this level of security will not be possible.
Reason for taking risk: Some analysts were warning Iran that if it launched a missile or drone attack on Israel, it would be risky for it. Still, he attacked, doesn’t it mean that he was preparing to fight a decisive battle? Actually, Iran has been facing a proxy war being fought by Israel for a long time. It is not only waging a proxy war on Jewish soil but is waging another war, which requires a strong military and defense system. The Islamic world is divided into Shia majority and Sunni majority. The western world seems to be standing with the first.
Answer to Sunni Bomb: When Pakistan made a nuclear bomb, it was called Sunni Bomb. In response, Iran also wanted to make ‘Shia bomb’. He had also come close to it, but in July 2015, Britain, China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia and America put an end to it by signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The announcement of America’s withdrawal from it in 2018 gave it another chance. After that, Iran broke the limit of uranium enrichment which was fixed in the agreement at 3.67%, and in the beginning of 2021 it went up to 20%. Not only this, gradually he started enriching it up to 90%, which is necessary to make a nuclear bomb.
IAEA’s warning: In view of this, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi has warned that Iran’s nuclear program is progressing very fast. His ambition and potential are increasing. So could it be possible that Iran has developed nuclear capability and is now ready for a physical response? Is it possible that this is why America and its allies want to understand the reason for Iran’s stance, but are avoiding getting involved with it?
Complex Military System: The second aspect is the complex military system of Iran. He has the largest army in West Asia. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, there are 5,80,000 active soldiers in the Iran Armed Forces. Along with this, about 2,00,000 trained soldiers divided in the Revolutionary Guard Corps have been kept safe. They are active on land, air and sea. Its Quds Force is operating as part of a wide network of fighting groups in the Middle East. This is the Regional Cooperative Force of Iran, which fights committedly for it. Not only this, Iran has made considerable progress in the fields of drones, ballistic missiles, speedboats and submarines.
Damage to the global economy: However, if this war continues, it will not only change the geopolitical equations but will also harm the world economy. Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz. If this happens, the oil supply in the world will be disrupted. About 25% of the total oil consumption in the world passes through this region. This can have a deep impact on other countries including India. India has trade relations with both the countries. Last year, India’s trade with both the countries was about Rs 1.1 lakh crore.
Difficult to retreat: The conflict between Iran and Israel is currently in the ‘grey zone’, where nothing is clearly visible yet. But the indications are that neither of them is in any mood to back down. That is, looking at the current situation, it can be assumed that the Iranian attack on Israel is just a beginning.